Direct Answer
The home service marketing statistics that matter most for Canadian trades in 2027 start with competition. Statistics Canada counted more than 29,100 plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors across Canada in June 2025, and 57% of those that reported staff had one to four employees [1].
TL;DR
- Statistics Canada counted more than 29,100 plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors in June 2025, about four times the listings figure that circulates online [1]
- Forced air furnaces still heat most homes, but Statistics Canada shows their share fell from 51% in 2021 to 46% in 2023 as heat pumps grew [2][1]
- CMHC recorded more housing starts in 2025, with records in Calgary and Edmonton and a 31% drop in Toronto [3]
- Natural Resources Canada closed the Canada Greener Homes Grant, and the Greener Homes Loan stopped taking applications on October 1, 2025 [4]
- AI Overviews and AI Mode are live in Canada, and BrightLocal’s 2026 US survey found review recency and volume shape who gets hired [5][6][7]
- BuildForce Canada projects a shortfall of new residential construction workers to 2035, though Alberta’s new entrants now almost match retirements [8][9]
One liner: Plan 2027 marketing with dated Canadian numbers, and treat US statistics as direction only.
Key Numbers
The contractor count matters because most statistics roundups online come from US surveys, priced in US dollars. A cost per lead from Texas or a review survey of American adults can point you in a direction, but it can’t size your market in Calgary, Mississauga or Halifax.
Each figure below shows who published it, the year it covers and whether it describes Canada or the US. Canadian sources come first. The last two rows are US surveys, included because no Canadian survey we found measures the same behaviour.
| Stat | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| More than 29,100 | Plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors in Canada | Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Counts, June 2025 (Canada) [1] |
| 57% | Share of those contractors reporting staff that have one to four employees | Statistics Canada, June 2025 (Canada) [1] |
| 46% and 8% | Households heating mainly with a forced air furnace, and with a heat pump | Statistics Canada, Households and the Environment Survey, 2023 (Canada) [1] |
| More than 1,200 | Job vacancies for heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics | Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, Q2 2025 (Canada) [1] |
| 259,028 | Housing starts, up 5.6% from 2024 | CMHC, 2025 (Canada) [3] |
| About 135,000 | Residential construction workers (21%) expected to retire by 2035 | BuildForce Canada, 2026 to 2035 outlook (Canada) [10][8] |
| 68% and 45% | Consumers who only use a business rated four stars or higher, and who use ChatGPT or other AI tools for local recommendations | BrightLocal Local Consumer Review Survey, 2026 (US, 1,002 adults) [7] |
| 76% and 28% | People who search nearby on a smartphone and visit a business within a day, and the share of those searches that end in a purchase | Think with Google, 2016 (US) [11] |
Check the year and country in the Source column before you quote a figure. A 2016 survey of US smartphone users and a 2025 Statistics Canada count are both real, but only one describes your market today.
How Many Home Service Companies Compete in Canada
In short: More than 29,100 plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors operated in Canada in June 2025.
Statistics Canada counted more than 29,100 plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors across Canada in June 2025 [1]. A much smaller figure, about 7,300 HVAC contractors from late-2025 business listings data, gets repeated on Canadian statistics pages, but the official count is about four times higher.
The gap comes down to what each number counts. The official figure comes from Statistics Canada’s business register, published as Canadian Business Counts [12]. It includes contractors that didn’t report staff numbers, from sole operators up to larger firms [1]. A listings count only catches businesses that show up in one particular directory.
| Count | What it includes | Year |
|---|---|---|
| About 7,300 HVAC contractors | Businesses found in one listings dataset | Late 2025 |
| More than 29,100 plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors | Contractors on Statistics Canada’s business register, with or without reported staff | June 2025 |
A private estimate points the same way. IBISWorld counts about 13,870 heating and air conditioning businesses and 14,998 plumbing businesses in Canada for 2025, which together land close to the official total [13][14].
One limit applies. Statistics Canada reports plumbing and HVAC contractors as a single group, so there’s no official HVAC-only count. Any page that quotes one is working from a different source.
Most of these businesses are small. Among contractors that reported staff, Statistics Canada found 19.3% had five to nine employees and 12% had 10 to 19 [1]. For a homeowner, that adds up to a long list of similar-looking companies in every city. For a contractor, it means the first job of marketing is being easy to find and easy to trust before the phone rings.
HVAC Industry Statistics for Canada
In short: Furnaces still lead, heat pumps are growing, and federal Greener Homes funding has closed.
Canadian homes are still mostly heated by furnaces, but the mix is moving. Statistics Canada’s Households and the Environment Survey shows the share of households heating mainly with a forced air furnace fell from 51% in 2021 to 46% in 2023, while heat pumps rose from 6% to 8% [2][1].
IBISWorld puts the Canadian heating and air conditioning contractor market at $17.3 billion in 2025, up 1.6%, with maintenance and repairs as its largest segment [13].
| Primary heating system | 2021 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Forced air furnace | 51% | 46% |
| Electric baseboard heaters | 25% | 23% |
| Heat pump | 6% | 8% |
Statistics Canada counts a further 1% of households on mini-split heat pumps in 2023, separate from the 8% above [1].
Region matters more than the national average, and Statistics Canada’s figures show it. In Alberta, 82% of households relied on a forced air furnace in 2021, the highest share on the Prairies, and Ontario sat at 75% [2]. In the Maritimes, heat pumps lead: 36% of Prince Edward Island households had one in 2023, followed by New Brunswick at 27% and Nova Scotia at 25% [1].
On the supply side, hiring pressure has eased. Statistics Canada’s job vacancy data shows openings for heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics in mid-2025 were down 63% from almost 3,300 at the peak in the third quarter of 2022 [1]. Equipment costs more, though. Statistics Canada’s price index shows heating and cooling equipment prices rose 5.1% year over year in July 2025 [1].
Federal rebates have changed as well. According to Natural Resources Canada, the Canada Greener Homes Grant is closed to new applicants, and October 1, 2025, was the last day to apply for the Canada Greener Homes Loan [4].
For HVAC companies, these numbers point to three shifts. Furnace repair and replacement is still the bigger market in Alberta and Ontario, so those searches stay worth owning. Heat pump interest is growing from a smaller base. And any ad or landing page still built around Greener Homes money needs to point to programs that are open today. Keeping details like that current is part of HVAC marketing that books jobs instead of sending homeowners to a closed program.
Plumbing Industry Statistics for Canada
In short: A $22.4 billion market where new-build demand split sharply by city in 2025.
Statistics Canada counts plumbers together with heating and air conditioning contractors, so the official business count above covers both trades. For a plumbing-only view, private research firm IBISWorld estimates 14,998 plumbing businesses in Canada in 2025, up 2.0% from 2024, and a market size of $22.4 billion, up 0.7% [14].
New construction is the swing factor, and in 2025 it swung by city. CMHC data shows national housing starts rose, but the gains landed unevenly across the largest metros [3].
| Metro area | 2024 starts | 2025 starts | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary | 24,369 | 27,684 | +14% (record) |
| Edmonton | 18,384 | 21,337 | +16% (record) |
| Montréal | 17,570 | 27,777 | +58% |
| Vancouver | 28,112 | 27,185 | -3% |
| Toronto | 37,718 | 26,087 | -31% |
CMHC also noted that the trend in starts had been falling since September 2025, so 2026 began from a weaker position [3].
Repair work runs on a different clock. Statistics Canada reports that prices for homeowners’ maintenance and repairs rose 1.8% year over year in September 2025, and prices for metal valves and pipe fittings rose 3.6% in July 2025 [1].
For plumbing companies in Calgary and Edmonton, that points to a busy new-build pipeline worth chasing alongside emergency and repair calls. In Toronto, the same budget may do more on service and replacement searches. Local starts data is one of the first things to check before setting a plumbing marketing budget for the year.
How Canadians Find and Choose a Local Service Company
In short: Almost everyone is online, AI search is live in Canada, and reviews must be recent.
Nearly every homeowner you want to reach is online. Statistics Canada found that 95% of Canadians aged 15 and older used the internet in 2022, up from 92% in 2020 [15].
What they see when they search has changed. Google began the full rollout of AI Overviews in Canada in late October 2024, then started rolling out AI Mode, its conversational search tab, in English in Canada on August 21, 2025 [5][6]. Some searches now return an AI-written answer above the regular list of results.
We found no Canadian survey that tracks how people use reviews to pick a local business. The best current guide is BrightLocal’s 2026 survey of 1,002 US adults, so read it as direction rather than a Canadian measurement [7].
| What US consumers said | Share |
|---|---|
| Read reviews for local businesses | 97% |
| Only care about reviews from the last three months | 74% |
| Use Google to read local reviews (83% in 2025) | 71% |
| Visit the business website after reading positive reviews | 54% |
| Won’t use a business with fewer than 20 reviews | 47% |
According to BrightLocal, use of ChatGPT and other AI tools for local recommendations, shown in Key Numbers above, stood at 6% a year earlier [7].
Put together, the numbers describe a homeowner who checks more than one place before calling. A steady flow of fresh reviews counts for more than a big pile of old ones. The website has to answer the next question once someone clicks. And the company needs to appear in AI answers as well as the map listings, which is where AI search optimization comes in.
Labour and Capacity Numbers for 2027
In short: Fewer new workers are coming in, so marketing should fill calendars with the right jobs.
More demand only helps if someone can show up to do the work. BuildForce Canada reports residential construction employment rose 2% in 2025, but its retirement estimate in Key Numbers above comes with a second warning: a projected shortfall of new entrants through 2035 [10][8]. According to BuildForce, construction as a whole employs more than 1.6 million people in Canada and accounts for about 7% of GDP [10].
Alberta’s outlook looks different from the national one.
| Outlook point | Canada | Alberta |
|---|---|---|
| Residential construction jobs | Up 2% in 2025 | Projected to fall 16% from 2025 levels by 2035 |
| Where job losses fall | Not broken out nationally | New housing only |
| New entrants vs retirements | Shortfall of new entrants projected | New entrants now almost equal retirements |
BuildForce’s Alberta outlook places the projected decline entirely in new-housing work, so renovation and maintenance crews aren’t where the losses fall [9]. Service and repair calls stay steady work, even as new-build hiring cools.
Phone handling is part of capacity too. CallRail’s January 2025 benchmark of 1.1 million conversations across seven industries found home services missed 14% of calls [16].
When crews are the limit, the goal of marketing shifts from more leads to the right leads: jobs you want, in the area you serve, from callers who reach a person.
Why Many Marketing Statistics Mislead Canadian Trades
In short: Check who ran the research, when, where and what was measured.
Statistics drift as they get copied. One line that circulates on contractor marketing pages says 78% of mobile Google searches lead to a purchase within one day, usually with no source attached.
The closest original is Google research from May 2016, based on a diary study of 1,000 US smartphone users. It found that 76% of people who searched on their phone for something nearby visited a related business within a day, and 28% of those searches ended in a purchase [11]. The real finding is about visits, it comes from the US, and it’s ten years old.
Before you use any marketing statistic, check four things:
- Who ran the research, and did they collect the data themselves?
- When was the data collected, and when was it published?
- Which country does it describe?
- What exactly was measured: a visit, a call, a booking or a purchase?
For this roundup, Canadian government and industry sources come first: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Natural Resources Canada and BuildForce Canada. US surveys appear only where we found no Canadian equivalent, and each one is labelled. Figures from marketing agency and software vendor blogs were left out unless the company ran the research itself. Survey results also describe what people said, which isn’t always what they’ll do.
What These Numbers Mean for Your 2027 Marketing Plan
In short: Build next year’s plan from local, dated numbers.
The figures above point to a handful of practical moves for next year.
| What the numbers show | What to do in 2027 |
|---|---|
| The official count of plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors is far higher than the figures that circulate online | Treat local visibility as the first job: a complete Google Business Profile, local SEO for each service area, and Local Services Ads in Canada where your trade qualifies |
| New construction and heating systems vary sharply by city and province | Set budgets and service pages from local data, such as furnace work in Alberta or new-build demand in Calgary and Edmonton |
| Fresh reviews and review volume shape who gets the call | Ask for a review after every completed job and reply to each one |
| AI Overviews and AI Mode now answer some searches in Canada | Keep your website, listings and reviews clear and consistent so AI answers describe your business correctly |
| Crews are tight and federal Greener Homes funding has closed | Aim ads at the jobs you want in the area you serve, make sure calls get answered, and remove copy that points to closed programs |
The common thread is local. Your city, your trade and your crew size decide which of these moves matter most, and in what order.
If you’d like help turning these figures into a plan for your own service area, Marvel Marketing builds home service marketing for trades, working with HVAC, plumbing, roofing, electrical and other home service companies across Canada.
Frequently Asked Questions
In short: Quick answers on contractor counts, market size, heat pumps, rebates and where to find Canadian data.
How many HVAC and plumbing companies are there in Canada?
Statistics Canada counted more than 29,100 plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors across Canada in June 2025 [1]. It reports plumbing and HVAC as one group, so there’s no official count for HVAC companies alone.
How big is the HVAC industry in Canada?
IBISWorld estimates the Canadian heating and air conditioning contractor market at $17.3 billion in 2025, up 1.6%, with about 13,870 businesses [13]. Maintenance and repairs make up the largest segment. These are private estimates, not Statistics Canada figures.
How big is the plumbing industry in Canada?
Private research firm IBISWorld puts the Canadian plumbing industry’s market size at $22.4 billion in 2025, up 0.7% from 2024, with an estimated 14,998 plumbing businesses [14]. These are private estimates, not Statistics Canada figures.
What share of Canadian homes heat with a heat pump?
In 2023, 8% of Canadian households used a heat pump as their primary heating system, and another 1% used a mini-split heat pump, according to Statistics Canada [1]. Shares run much higher in the Maritimes, led by Prince Edward Island at 36%.
Is the Canada Greener Homes Grant still available?
No. The Canada Greener Homes Grant is closed to new applicants, and October 1, 2025, was the last day to apply for the Canada Greener Homes Loan, according to Natural Resources Canada [4]. Check provincial and utility programs for rebates that are open now.
Where can I find reliable home service marketing statistics for Canada?
Start with Statistics Canada for business counts, heating systems and job vacancies, CMHC for housing starts, Natural Resources Canada for energy programs and BuildForce Canada for trades labour outlooks [1][3][10][4]. Use US surveys only when no Canadian data exists, and note the country and year when you quote them.
Definition Bank
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Canadian Business Counts | Statistics Canada’s twice-yearly count of business locations, drawn from its business register |
| Plumbing, heating and air conditioning contractors | Businesses that install and service plumbing, heating and air conditioning equipment, counted as one industry group |
| Households and the Environment Survey | Statistics Canada survey that asks households how they heat their homes, among other topics |
| Primary heating system | The main system a household uses to heat its home |
| Forced air furnace | A furnace that heats air and pushes it through ducts |
| Heat pump | Equipment that moves heat into a home in winter and out in summer |
| Mini-split heat pump | A ductless heat pump with an outdoor unit and one or more indoor units |
| Housing starts | New homes where construction began during a period, counted by CMHC |
| Job vacancy | An unfilled position an employer is actively trying to fill, measured by Statistics Canada |
| AI Overviews | AI-written summaries Google shows above some search results |
| AI Mode | A Google Search tab for longer, conversational questions with follow-ups |
| Local Services Ads | Google ads for local service businesses that appear at the top of some searches |
| Google Business Profile | A free business listing that shows on Google Search and Maps |
| AI search optimization | Work that helps AI tools find and describe a business accurately |
Entity Cards
Statistics Canada
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Type | Canada’s national statistics agency |
| Data used here | Business counts, heating systems, job vacancies, prices, internet use |
| Most recent figure used | June 2025 business counts |
CMHC
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Full name | Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation |
| Data used here | 2025 housing starts by city |
| Release date | January 16, 2026 |
BuildForce Canada
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Type | National industry-led construction labour organization |
| Report used | Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward 2026 to 2035 |
| Release date | July 20, 2026 |
Marvel Marketing
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Type | Marketing agency for home service trades and local businesses |
| Founded | 2014 |
| Headquarters | 114 61 Ave SW, Calgary, AB T2H 0B2 |
| Other offices | Toronto, Vancouver |
| Founder | Ryan McRae |
| Related services | Local SEO, Google Ads and Local Services Ads, Meta Ads, AI search optimization, web design |
Sources
- Statistics Canada. StatsCAN Plus: The price on heat, and how it’s generated (October 21, 2025).
- Statistics Canada. StatsCAN Plus: The heat is on: How Canadians heat their home during the winter (January 13, 2023).
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Housing starts up 5.6% in 2025 from 2024 (January 16, 2026).
- Natural Resources Canada. Closed: Greener Homes Grant, Ontario (accessed October 21, 2026).
- Google Canada. AI Overviews in Search are coming to Canada (October 28, 2024).
- Google Canada. Google Search: Introducing AI Mode in Canada (August 21, 2025).
- BrightLocal. Local Consumer Review Survey 2026 (February 11, 2026).
- Canadian Home Builders’ Association. New BuildForce Canada report underscores need for coordinated action to build residential construction workforce (July 20, 2026).
- BuildForce Canada. Construction activity rises in Alberta to 2035, as non-residential growth offsets moderating residential demands (July 20, 2026).
- BuildForce Canada. Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward 2026 to 2035 (July 20, 2026).
- Think with Google. How Mobile Search Connects Consumers to Stores (2016).
- Statistics Canada. The Daily: Canadian business counts, June 2025 (August 15, 2025).
- IBISWorld. Heating and Air-Conditioning Contractors in Canada: industry statistics (2025).
- IBISWorld. Plumbing in Canada: market size and number of businesses (2025).
- Statistics Canada. The Daily: Canadian Internet Use Survey, 2022 (July 20, 2023).
- CallRail. CallRail releases report benchmarking marketing efforts for small businesses (January 15, 2025).
